Industrial production: a good prospect! ISTAT (Italian National Statistics Institute) estimates that the seasonally adjusted index for the month of July increased by 7.4% compared to the month of June.
What point are we at: a decrease in all economic activity after the lockdown
After the period passed in lockdown during the recent months, an analysis of the data emerging from the main sectors of economic activity is necessary. ISTAT has taken care of this, and here we have summarised the results and comments.
According to the data analysed, all economic activities record a decrease on a trend basis. The highest are those of the manufacture of coal and refined petroleum products (-21.4%), the textile, clothing, leather and accessories industries (-20.6%) and the manufacture of means of transport (-11.5 %).
Less worrying data are instead observed in the food, beverage and tobacco industries (-0.4%), in the production of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations (-1.4%).
At a trend level, a decrease has been recorded in all sectors; the decline is more evident for intermediate goods (-11.3%), while it is less important for the other aggregates, with a decrease of 6.8% for capital goods and energy, and 6.2% for consumer goods.
Industrial production: the estimates of the ISTAT
On the other hand, the prospects for growth in the industrial production sector are good. ISTAT has in fact estimated that the seasonally adjusted index in July has increased compared to that of the month of June. A comforting fact, as much as 7.4%. Moreover, the overall index is down by 8% compared to July of last year for the same number of working days.
The seasonally adjusted index not only shows cyclical increases in the industrial production sector, but also in the field of capital goods (+ 11.8%), intermediate goods (+ 7.7%), consumer goods (+6, 2%) and to a lesser extent in the energy sector (+ 0.1%).
The interpretation of the ISTAT
ISTAT defines “Growth on a cyclical basis, particularly lively for capital goods …” growth that “extends to almost all sectors of economic activity, with the exception of the mining sector and of the supply of electricity, gas, steam and air, which is in moderate decline “.
Therefore, comforting data for the growth of industrial production that give us an optimistic outlook for the near future.